I’m sure most people remember the alarm surrounding Y2K, the computer bug problem that loomed in 2000 when the practice of using only two digits to indicate the date in computers instead of four posed a theoretical problem in the proper functioning of anything relying upon computers. It was predicted that the mass electronic confusion that would follow the change in millennia would create very real physical problems with anything from nuclear power plants to medical equipment to water treatment plants to the stock market. Survivalists were buying up generators and guns and bottled water in anticipation that the world would plunge into a pre-technological state of pandemonium.

 

And of course, we all know what happened when the year changed from 1999 to 2000: practically nothing.

 

And then there was the widely heralded bird flu, which preceded the current swine flu, where news pundits and certain health care experts predicted that millions could die as soon as the avian flu was able to transmit easily from person to person. And, as we know, that didn’t happen, either.

 

Oh yeah, and there was the 1976 swine flu panic, where a hastily assembled vaccination effort resulted in 500 cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome and 25 deaths, while the predicted pandemic never materialized.

 

Now we have the current swine flu, where the apparent early patterns of the disease (taking the lives of young adults, for example, rather that those of infants and the elderly) and the genetic roots of the virus itself (the same type as the virus that caused the 1918 flu pandemic) sent alarm bells clanging around the world. So far, though, the disease doesn’t seem to be as severe as it first appeared; the number of deaths due to swine flu in Mexico are being revised downward as more victims are tested, and this flu appears to be rather mild in cases outside of Mexico. That hasn’t stopped a number of hysterical reactions, however—officials slaughtering all the pigs in Egypt, for example, drug stores being emptied of surgical masks, and panicked patients calling their doctors to demand a prescription of Tamiflu.

 

Now the hysteria being generated is thought, in some circles, to be more dangerous than the actual flu itself. There’s a lot of scoffing going on and a lot of conspiracy theories being thrown around concerning who might benefit from the current situation.

 

And yet, there is a middle ground to consider, and a sensible approach to taking precautions. When Richard and I were talking to my brother (an early researcher in the field of artificial intelligence) about Y2K after the fact, noting that none of the grim predictions had taken place, he pointed out that a great number of companies had gone to a great deal of trouble to address the situation. He said that, if nothing had been done, it was possible that a lot of electronically-generated headaches and glitches could have occurred. Nothing so dire as the collapse of civilization as we know it. But it could have been a big mess nonetheless. But because the problems were addressed proactively and afterwards the predicted chaos didn’t occur, it would be easy to assume that the whole threat was blown out of proportion and never really existed—when in fact, it’s possible that the problems were real, just taken care of ahead of time so that they didn’t materialize on any kind of large scale.

 

And so it might be with this particular flu outbreak. Because people got freaked out and took the precautions they should always be taking during an outbreak of influenza (e.g., minimizing travel, staying home when sick, avoiding physical contact in casual social situations, washing hands frequently and thoroughly), it might well be that the spread of this flu was slowed dramatically. A virus remains active only for so long without a host. If it doesn’t find another host within a certain amount of time, it will no longer be infectious on its own. That’s the rationale behind quarantines. If you can keep infected hosts isolated for long enough, the disease will have nowhere to go and will burn out.

 

It might be too soon to tell (influenza outbreaks follow seasonal patterns and our flu season is coming to an end; so, it’s possible that we will see another outbreak in the coming fall or winter months), but we might have dodged a bullet this time. It might be that the conditions that existed in Mexico don’t exist elsewhere; this flu strain might indeed be a mild one, not the virulent one feared. And I don’t adhere to the belief that because, during certain times in human history, devastating disease outbreaks have occurred with a certain apparent periodicity, it’s inevitable that we’re “overdue” for another one. My feeling is that catastrophic disease outbreaks are the result of a number of environmental, social, genetic, and physiological factors, all of which combine in unique patterns. In more than one of the reference books I read while researching my biothriller, it was pointed out that particularly lethal outbreaks are often associated with extensive wars. It is not simply a genetic and immunological equation.

 

 

So, what are reasonable precautions in this situation? These were outlined in my previous post on the subject: Wash your hands frequently, keep your immune system healthy, stay home if you’re sick, minimize travel if there is an apparent epidemic underway (remember, with influenza, you can be contagious before you’re symptomatic), use a personal air purifier if you’re traveling or in a large gathering (such as a concert), and use homeopathic or essential oil preventatives.

 

 

In the big picture, a number of experts have suggested that poorly managed, giant factory farms for both pigs and chickens are perhaps giant petri dishes incubating the superbugs of tomorrow. As a global society, it would be a good idea for those of us in wealthy countries to cut down on the amount of meat we eat in order to reduce the demand for cheap meat, and to buy locally raised meat products from smaller farms instead. Addressing poverty in all its forms all over the globe is a good long term strategy as well. Crowded, unhealthy living conditions are always dangerous when it comes to fueling epidemics. And since some of mankind’s most calamitous pandemics have arisen during times of widespread war, it would be advantageous to pursue diplomatic solutions whenever possible.

 

One of the things that pandemics should, but don’t always teach us is just how interconnected we all are, not just with our fellow humans, but with our fellow species as well. What’s good for the individual is good for the whole. What’s good for the whole is good for the individual.

 

Whatever the future holds, there’s no need for panic. Just use intelligent caution and good common sense.  And perhaps we can use some of the lessons learned in this experience to help guide us for minimizing future flu outbreaks of whatever severity—I don’t know about you, but I’ve never enjoyed coming down with any kind of flu, even a mild one.

 

 

Above: Something to soothe whatever jangled nerves you might possess—Rhododenron season in Ashland. Ahhhhhhh.